A Brazilian congressman runs a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army." This week it passed ten million followers, part of a late surge that has turned a race Lula was losing into a near tie. Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics maps what Sunday's runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro decides: who fills at least three of the Supreme Court's eleven seats, whether anyone fixes debt rules built for an age of runaway inflation, and who controls the world's second-largest rare earth reserves – where an American company has agreed to buy a mine. Monica is extremely confident in at least one thing: "The potential to disappoint is enormous."
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(00:00) – Intro/Welcome
(01:20) – A race that flipped in three weeks
(03:33) – Meta, WhatsApp and the online campaign
(05:39) – Supreme Court seats and the Orbán comparison
(09:47) – Lula's record, and the market's hope for a Brazilian Milei
(15:40) – Why Brazil's interest rates are so high
(21:24) – The reforms nobody will make
(26:09) – Washington, Beijing and Brazil's new trade deals
(33:36) – Can Brazil lead? Rare earths and a mine in Goiás
(41:46) – Why micro-entrepreneurs left Lula
(47:14) – The military and Brazil's regional role
(51:36) – "The potential to disappoint is enormous"
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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October 23, 2026