With Russia’s key partner in the Middle East on the ropes, the Kremlin runs the risk of being drawn into a broader conflict it cannot afford.
So far, Putin has handled his Iranian problem with considerable skill, which has meant doing very little, in practice, to help Iran. This is nothing new. Moscow’s policy towards Iran – and the Middle East more generally – has been marked by opportunism born of a substantial mismatch between Russia’s modest capabilities and its great power ambitions.
Russia’s relations with the current regime in Iran go back to the latter’s very founding. The Kremlin perceived the Iranian revolution as an opportunity to acquire a new client in the Middle East, replacing the United States as Iran’s partner and friend. The Soviets, despite their ties to the Iraq of Saddam Hussein, adopted careful neutrality during the Iran-Iraq War.